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The Future of Service : 2026 Hospitality Outlook in Aotearoa | New Zealand.
- James Pomeroy
- Oct 29
- 3 min read
Executive Summary.
The New Zealand hospitality and tourism sector is entering a decisive period of recalibration. While international visitor arrivals are forecast to reach nearly four million by the end of 2026, domestic discretionary spending remains subdued, creating a two-speed
environment where premium and experience-driven operators out perform volume-based venues.
Revenue across cafés, restaurants, bars, private clubs, luxury lodges, and tourism experiences now exceeds NZ$21 billion annually, employing almost 200,000 people nationwide. However, rising input costs, wage pressures, and skill shortages continue to constrain profitability. The sector’s success will increasingly depend on its ability to balance operational efficiency with elevated guest experience and authentic storytelling.
Consumer references are shifting toward curated, high-value experiences that reflect local provenance, sustainability, and cultural authenticity. Dining and event concepts that
connect food, place, and people are gaining traction, while traditional casual models face margin compression. Technology adoption—AI-enabled rostering, smart inventory management, and direct booking integration—is accelerating efficiency gains and
reshaping service models.
Regional markets such as Queenstown, Canterbury, and Nelson are out performing urban centres, benefiting from tourism recovery, lifestyle migration, and experiential travel. Operators who capture “shoulder-season” demand and leverage international visitor spending will find growth opportunities despite softer urban trading conditions.
For workforce and leadership, 2025–26 will require a pivot from volume recruitment to capability development. Strong governance, modern workforce planning, and leadership
training will be critical to maintaining service standards, retention, and long-term sector reputation.
In summary, the next phase of New Zealand’s hospitality growth will be led by businesses that:
Deliver premium, experience-centric offerings that justify higher margins.
Embed sustainability, provenance, and cultural narratives at the heart of their brand.
Invest in talent, digital capability, and operational governance to remain resilient.
Strengthen regional and tourism-driven propositions to capture global visitor spend.
The opportunity is clear: those who elevate hospitality from service to storytelling will define the competitive advantage of New Zealand’s next hospitality era.
Economic & Labour Environment.
Persistent input-cost inflation (food +4.6–4.8 %, general ~2.7 %) and wage pressure are constraining margins.
Labour shortages remain structural, particularly in skilled culinary and guest-experience roles.
Trends to note:
Operators are reducing trading hours and menus to manage wage-to-sales ratios.
Multi-skilling and productivity-based pay structures are becoming common.
Staffing demand is strong for senior front-of-house, event, and kitchen-leadership roles—critical areas for recruitment agencies and training providers.
Consumer & Market Shifts.
Consumers are moving from functional dining to immersive and narrative-led experiences. Dining occasions increasingly centre on storytelling, sustainability, and cultural connection.
Key demand shifts:
Experience-first dining: Chef-led menus, pop-ups, and event-driven concepts.
Health & provenance: Growth in clean-label, plant-based, and locally-sourced produce.
Premiumisation: Willingness to pay for craftsmanship, wine pairings, and curated hospitality.
These preferences position high-touch operators—private clubs, wineries, luxury lodges & destination restaurants—as winners in 2025–26.
Technology & Operational Innovation.
Digital integration is expanding across booking, inventory, and workforce systems.
Technology adoption is being used less for novelty and more for efficiency and cost-control.
Emerging practices:
AI-enabled rostering and demand forecasting.
Direct online booking channels to reduce third-party commission.
Smart inventory systems reducing food waste and theft.
Integrated POS + CRM data to personalise guest engagement.
Sustainability, Provenance & Cultural Storytelling.
Sustainability has shifted from “nice-to-have” to non-negotiable brand equity.
Provenance (local produce, traceability) is a primary guest-decision driver.
Operators are adopting circular-economy models—composting, on-site gardens, reduced packaging.
Integration of Māori and Pasifika narratives is increasingly seen as a mark of authenticity and cultural respect.
Regional vs Urban Divergence.
Regional growth outpaces urban recovery:
Queenstown + 14 %, Nelson + 15 %, Canterbury steady growth.
Auckland and Wellington show softer recovery due to cost pressures and reduced weekday trade.
Strategic takeaway: Destination operators must maximise shoulder-season opportunities, while city venues must reinvent experiences to attract both locals and business travellers.
Recruitment, Leadership & Workforce Development.
The next 24 months will emphasise capability over headcount.
The sector requires better career pathways and structured leadership training.
Upskilling in digital, sustainability, and event management is key.
Sector led-leadership models and scholarships aligning with national needs in order to professionalise hospitality careers and pathways.
Outlook.
The New Zealand hospitality sector (excluding hotels) will continue to evolve toward experiential, premium, and sustainable offerings through 2026. The winners will be those who:
Maintain disciplined financial management,
Curate experiences over transactions, and
Embed authenticity, culture, and people development at the heart of their operations.
What does this mean for you?
Our expert team at Pomeroy Group are positioned to help you interpret what this may mean for your hospitality or tourism business, across our advisory, recruitment & governance teams.
For more information or to have a confidential conversation contact our Chief Executive & Principal Advisor James Pomeroy.
